Manchester United have signed exciting young striker Rasmus Højlund from Atalanta, paying £72 million (including add-ons, but if United win trophies to trigger them, no one will complain) for the promising 20-year-old attacker.
Much has been made about the Dane’s price tag and his lack of experience, and for some reason, a few major media outlets started comparing Hojlund to Manchester City striker Erling Haaland before the former even had his medical for United. A bit strange, that. Aside from being tall, blonde, and having last names that are somewhat similar, any comparison is purely on a “what if” basis. To be honest, too, by the time he retires, I don’t think any striker in the history of football comes close to Erling Haaland. The guy is an absolute machine.
That’s not to say comparisons, in general, aren’t valid–percentile ranks in different stat categories are inherently comparisons to other players in the same position, after all–but choosing someone like Haaland is always going to make even a prolific striker appear poor. Better, then, to take a look at a few of football’s great attackers when they were the same age as Højlund, which is a much fairer comparison.
To kick things off, though, let’s take a closer look at Højlund as an individual player and what caught Erik ten Hag’s eye. The 2022/23 season wasn’t merely a flash in the pan for the Dane. As an 18 year old, he scored 12 goals in all competitions in just 21 games with Austrian side, Sturm Graz, after only joining them in January 2022. Atalanta took notice of Højlund’s talent and potential in that short period of time and pounced, paying a hefty €17 million for a player they looked to develop and ease into the first team over time. Duvan Zapata’s dip in form and injuries, however, forced Atalanta to push their timeline up regarding Højlund’s involvement in the starting eleven and he shared minutes with Ademola Lookman. He grabbed his chance, though, impressing enough in his first appearance to be handed the starting role in his next match, where he scored. Højlund ended the 22/23 season with nine goals and two assists in just 20 starts, averaging a goal every 200 minutes in the league and even featuring in the Team of the Week once. People underestimate just how impressive this is for such a young player who was rushed into the first team.
If you look at players like Harry Kane or Mohamed Salah, the comparisons with Hojlund get interesting. I know what you’re thinking: “Are you seriously comparing Hojlund to Harry Kane or Mo Salah?” It’s easy to argue that now, though, after their performances in the Premier League over the years, but you can only compare what they did at the age Hojlund is now, since he just turned 20 in February. Salah, for instance, was still at Swiss club Basel when he was 20 years old and wasn’t exactly pulling up trees (five goals in 2012/13 and just four the following season). Even in his first season in Serie A–if you want to compare stats within the same league–Salah only scored six goals and provided three assists, and he was older at that time than Hojlund was last season.
Harry Kane, too, was relatively unknown to the vast majority of football fans when he was 20 and was still nowhere near the Spurs starting eleven at that time. Splitting the season between Tottenham and a loan spell in the Championship with Leicester City, Kane only scored two league goals for the Foxes 2012/13, following it up with just three goals for Spurs in 2013/14.
Want to go back further? Consider how Højlund’s numbers stack up to Cristiano Ronaldo, Robin van Persie, or Thierry Henry when they were his age. Ronaldo at 20-years-old was just starting to show what he could do, but was still only scoring four or five goals a season in the Premier League. Robin van Persie was still at Feyenoord at 20 and only scored eight goals and then six in his final two seasons in the Eredivisie. The Dutch striker only had a five goal output in each of his first two seasons at Arsenal, as well, when he was older than Hojlund is now. Henry was at AS Monaco, where he scored three goals at 19 and three at 20 years old. You starting to see where I’m coming from?
Look at a few of the Premier League’s biggest signings in recent years. Were Mykhailo Mudryk or Enzo Fernandez worth what Chelsea paid for them? Kai Havertz isn’t worth the fee Arsenal paid. Darwin Núñez wasn’t worth anywhere near what Liverpool paid for him after one solid season at Benfica. In fact, the Uruguayan managed just nine league goals last season–the same as Højlund scored in Serie A, mind you. Newly megarich Newcastle United, too, paid a club record €70 million for Alexander Isak off the back of a La Liga season that saw him score just six goals in the league. Or look at Jack Grealish, whose record-breaking £100 million move to Manchester City as a 24-year-old didn’t exactly pay off when he scored three goals and provided three assists after making the move to the Etihad Stadium.
Like it or not, transfer fees are a bit out of control these days. United probably overpaid a little for the young Dane, but every club does, especially if they care more about getting the player they want than haggling over the price. When a player is young, clubs tend to overpay for potential, which is actually potentially more economical than paying high fees for older players with zero sell-on value, as you can at least recoup a bit of the fee if a young player doesn’t perform. Still just 20, by the time United trigger the one year extension in Hojlund’s contract, he’ll be in his prime. If he does well, United will likely renew his contract before then, so they’ll either continue to benefit from his performances or stand to make a massive profit if he desires a move elsewhere by that time.
United’s pursuit of Hojlund and the subsequent fee they paid reflects a lesson learned when it comes to hesitating in the transfer market. After United decided against pursuing Moises Caicedo for less than £10 million a year ago, the midfielder is now valued at £100 million by Brighton after a stellar season. Opportunity missed. Victor Osimhen, too, has been priced at 150 million by Napoli after his goals propelled the club to the Scudetto last season, but that was his first truly remarkable season and he didn’t even start scoring consistently until late October. At that time, his market value was still less than €70 million. In today’s transfer market, clubs need to act fast if they want to avoid paying double in six months what they could have paid when they first targeted a given player. It’s mad.
Where young players are concerned, though, the right manager can make all the difference between that potential being realised or becoming a case of what might have been. We saw Sir Alex Ferguson mould a precocious young Portuguese winger into one of the best players the game has ever seen, for example. It remains to be seen if Erik ten Hag is the man to develop Hojlund into a lethal striker, though, as the Dane hasn’t kicked a ball for United yet (though, that hasn’t stopped the barrage of premature, outlandish comparisons and criticisms from the media. Cough, Sky Sports, cough), but if the Dutchman’s track record at Ajax or his management of Alejandro Garnacho is anything to go by, Højlund is in good hands. That’s not to say there won’t be pressure; it’s Manchester United, after all. It’s on ten Hag to manage and protect Højlund from buckling under this pressure. It’s on Hojlund to tune out the critics and ridiculous comparisons. And it’s on United fans to be patient with the 20 year old and enjoy watching him learn and grow at Old Trafford, like Ronaldo, Rooney, and Rashford before him.
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